The Quarter in Charts – Q4 2018

The Year That Diversification Missed The chart above captures much of why investors felt they had nowhere to hide in 2018; because they didn't. For the first time in decades, no major asset class beat inflation. Meaning, if we could travel back in time a year, the absolute best investment for most investors would have

On Market Volatility and What to Believe

“They were told where they belonged, and they acted accordingly.” In his book, Predictably Irrational, Dan Ariely highlights how our understanding of our current situation impacts how we will behave in the future. “One stereotype of Asian Americans, for instance, is that they are especially gifted in mathematics and science. A common stereotype of females

The Quarter In Charts – Q2 2018

Below are some pictures that help illustrate the current investment landscape. All of these charts show us where we’ve been, but none guarantees to show us what will happen in the future. Even though valuations tend to “revert to the mean” and certain data points can be leading indicators, nothing is guaranteed. In fact, that’s

Q1 2018 Market Commentary

The Return of Investor Pain and Volatility Every few weeks, Jonathan slides a chair up to my desk and pulls out an updated version of a chart, the Investor Pain Index. If you search for it online, you won’t find it. To call it “proprietary” would be accurate but (says Jonathan) far too complementary. The

Q3 2017 Market Commentary

“All analogies break down if taken too far, just like a car. Only there’s no gas station & maybe the mechanic is an editor or logician & also…”  – Ken Jennings, Jeopardy Champion Against the advice of Ken Jennings, and in order to better understand the stock market, we often talk about a different asset

Market Commentary Q4 – 2016

“Look at me, look at me, I am the Captain Now!” On Election Eve, pollsters predicted Donald Trump’s probabilities of winning at around 12%. By Election night, the world experienced a low probability, high impact event. As Mr. Trump neared 270 Electoral College votes, investors flew to safety: bond prices soared, the dollar sank, and