Below are some pictures that help illustrate the current investment landscape. All of these charts show us where we’ve been, but none guarantees to show us what will happen in the future. Even though valuations tend to “revert to the mean” and certain data points can be leading indicators, nothing is guaranteed. In fact, that’s…
The Return of Investor Pain and Volatility Every few weeks, Jonathan slides a chair up to my desk and pulls out an updated version of a chart, the Investor Pain Index. If you search for it online, you won’t find it. To call it “proprietary” would be accurate but (says Jonathan) far too complementary. The…
Without fail, the financial markets teach us lessons every year, but it is up to investors to learn. In 2017, the overwhelming lesson was a rerun: short term predictions are worthless (at best) and dangerous (at worst). We ran across a great example of predictions in Bob Seawright’s 2018 Investment Outlook. Seawright is Chief Investment…
“All analogies break down if taken too far, just like a car. Only there’s no gas station & maybe the mechanic is an editor or logician & also…” – Ken Jennings, Jeopardy Champion Against the advice of Ken Jennings, and in order to better understand the stock market, we often talk about a different asset…
All these psychics and these doctors They’re all right and they’re all wrong It’s like trying to make out every word When they should simply hum along It’s not some message written in the dark Or some truth that no one’s seen It’s a little bit of everything – Dawes “A Little Bit of…
A Change in Format For as long as we can remember, we have been sending a paper market commentary by mail every quarter to our clients and friends. You probably wouldn’t have guessed it, but we have always felt a bit constrained by a 2 or 3 page paper commentary. How can we highlight what…
“Look at me, look at me, I am the Captain Now!” On Election Eve, pollsters predicted Donald Trump’s probabilities of winning at around 12%. By Election night, the world experienced a low probability, high impact event. As Mr. Trump neared 270 Electoral College votes, investors flew to safety: bond prices soared, the dollar sank, and…
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