Without fail, the financial markets teach us lessons every year, but it is up to investors to learn. In 2017, the overwhelming lesson was a rerun: short term predictions are worthless (at best) and dangerous (at worst). We ran across a great example of predictions in Bob Seawright’s 2018 Investment Outlook. Seawright is Chief Investment
Category: Market Commentary
Q3 2017 Market Commentary
“All analogies break down if taken too far, just like a car. Only there’s no gas station & maybe the mechanic is an editor or logician & also…” – Ken Jennings, Jeopardy Champion Against the advice of Ken Jennings, and in order to better understand the stock market, we often talk about a different asset
Q2 2017 Market Commentary: It’s a Little Bit of Everything & If God Ran a Hedge Fund
All these psychics and these doctors They’re all right and they’re all wrong It’s like trying to make out every word When they should simply hum along It’s not some message written in the dark Or some truth that no one’s seen It’s a little bit of everything – Dawes “A Little Bit of
Q1 2017 – Quarterly Market Commentary
A Change in Format For as long as we can remember, we have been sending a paper market commentary by mail every quarter to our clients and friends. You probably wouldn’t have guessed it, but we have always felt a bit constrained by a 2 or 3 page paper commentary. How can we highlight what
Market Commentary Q4 – 2016
“Look at me, look at me, I am the Captain Now!” On Election Eve, pollsters predicted Donald Trump’s probabilities of winning at around 12%. By Election night, the world experienced a low probability, high impact event. As Mr. Trump neared 270 Electoral College votes, investors flew to safety: bond prices soared, the dollar sank, and
Market Commentary Q3 – 2016
Only the 1st Three Paragraphs are about the Election …I Promise "What will this election do to my investments?” Almost everyone we talk to seems to be both completely wrapped up and at the same time utterly exhausted with this election, so we will keep it to the first three paragraphs. Our answer always seems
Market Commentary Q2 – 2016
Lost in the Woods On June 24th, more than 30 million citizens of the United Kingdom turned out to vote on the issue off their sovereign state’s future relationship with the European Union. With a surprising 52% majority, the “Leaves” won and the “Brexit” wheels were set in motion. According to The Economist, in the
Market Commentary Q1 – 2016
You’re Hired, Here’s Your Phonebook. Not the Actual DOL Rulebook…But Close Just sit here and mumble your first name, maybe they won’t know the difference.” It was the summer of 1976 and I had recently graduated from Guilford College and somehow landed a job as a stockbroker. This was an odd thing, since I knew
Market Commentary Q4 – 2015
Never Before North Carolina joined the ranks of lottery states in 2005 by introducing the NC Education lottery. As a side note, only 29% of the revenue goes into actual education and somehow, NC still ranks 50th in the nation in teacher pay and 51st (that’s not a typo) in percentage increase in teacher pay
Market Commentary Q3 – 2015
"It's just like riding a bike...on water." That's what I told myself this past July as a boat full of my buddies cheered me on. The five of us had gathered in North Carolina from as far away as Texas and Illinois for our Financial Planning Study Group retreat and I wasn't going to let