From an economic and investment perspective, saying that the first quarter (particularly March), was without precedent is an understatement. Investors experienced the fastest bear market (from Peak to -20%) ever recorded in US stocks. But it wasn’t just down days that we experienced; we had plenty of dramatic positive days as well. As Nick Maggiulli
Category: Market Commentary
Quarter In Charts – Q4 2019
It’s interesting to think about what an impact Julius Caesar had on the calendar and from that, our lives. I remember when I started at Smith Partners Wealth Management (then Jonathan Smith & Co.) in 2005. The great Legg Mason Value Trust mutual fund manager Bill Miller was in the middle of his 15th consecutive
The Quarter in Charts – Q3 2019
I come from a long line of people who can’t keep track of their things. When I was a kid, it was my soccer cleats or my homework. My dad (you might know him as Jonathan) would try to help. He would ask if I looked in the den or on the back porch. When
The Quarter in Charts – Q2 2019
On the heels of a rough end to 2018, we’ve seen the largest increase in the S&P 500 to start the year since 1997. The chart below from Charlie Bilello details the other top 10 first 127 trading days of the year since 1928. And before your eyes drift to the red, remember that you’re
The Quarter in Charts – Q1 2019
If there was ever a quarter that demonstrated the changing nature of investment markets, it was the first quarter of 2019. Below, we’ll walk through the critical themes of the quarter touching specifically on the yield curve and the possibility of a recession. Asset Class Returns So far in 2019, investors have experienced double-digit returns
The Quarter in Charts – Q4 2018
The Year That Diversification Missed The chart above captures much of why investors felt they had nowhere to hide in 2018; because they didn't. For the first time in decades, no major asset class beat inflation. Meaning, if we could travel back in time a year, the absolute best investment for most investors would have
On Market Volatility and What to Believe
“They were told where they belonged, and they acted accordingly.” In his book, Predictably Irrational, Dan Ariely highlights how our understanding of our current situation impacts how we will behave in the future. “One stereotype of Asian Americans, for instance, is that they are especially gifted in mathematics and science. A common stereotype of females
Ze Pain of Market Corrections – Q3 2018 Market Commentary
(Updated: In an earlier version of this post, I couldn’t recall the name of the children’s book I reference throughout. I offered a $25 reward, payable to the sleuth’s charity of choice, for anyone who could help me. In less than a day, one of our readers emailed me the title “The Creature Department”. I happily
The Quarter In Charts – Q2 2018
Below are some pictures that help illustrate the current investment landscape. All of these charts show us where we’ve been, but none guarantees to show us what will happen in the future. Even though valuations tend to “revert to the mean” and certain data points can be leading indicators, nothing is guaranteed. In fact, that’s
Q1 2018 Market Commentary
The Return of Investor Pain and Volatility Every few weeks, Jonathan slides a chair up to my desk and pulls out an updated version of a chart, the Investor Pain Index. If you search for it online, you won’t find it. To call it “proprietary” would be accurate but (says Jonathan) far too complementary. The